Nothing Ever Happens: Obama
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Nothing (83%) · Nothing at 95¢ · $214 held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
Nothing
6
Nothing 83%
$213.72
$17.77
85¢ → 94.8¢
+12% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNothing at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 65%
Freshness
Late
4826h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Nothing. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04<$100 | Nothingavg 76¢ | $76 | $95.98 | +$18.25 | 88% 2229-292 (2521) |
QM QMG-CORE<$100 | Nothingavg 95.5¢ | $38.42 | $37.99 | -$0.43 | 77% 1408-416 (1824) |
JA jakepaulthegoat2008<$100 | Nothingavg 95¢ | $34.56 | $32.73 | -$0.09 | 50% 7330-7454 (14784) |
SI simpleman<$100 | Nothingavg 85¢ | $22.85 | $25.8 | +$2.49 | 47% 456-520 (976) |
 Porx<$100 | Nothingavg 92.7¢ | $14.94 | $15.47 | +$0.25 | 66% 1482-769 (2251) |
 TalophexCTR<$100 | Somethingavg 8.4¢ | $8.45 | $5.75 | -$2.7 | 91% 929-95 (1024) |
95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04<$100Invested
$76
Value
$95.98
PnL
+$18.25
Record
88%
2229-292 (2521)
Invested
$38.42
Value
$37.99
PnL
-$0.43
Record
77%
1408-416 (1824)
Invested
$34.56
Value
$32.73
PnL
-$0.09
Record
50%
7330-7454 (14784)
Invested
$22.85
Value
$25.8
PnL
+$2.49
Record
47%
456-520 (976)
Porx<$100Invested
$14.94
Value
$15.47
PnL
+$0.25
Record
66%
1482-769 (2251)
TalophexCTR<$100Invested
$8.45
Value
$5.75
PnL
-$2.7
Record
91%
929-95 (1024)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.