Consensus PnL -$602K · win rate 50% (2807–2841, n=5648) · PM monthly #43 · holds 7 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-601.6K
Record
2807W / 2841L
Win Rate
50.0%
of 5648 settled
Batting Avg
70.9%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1729
Source
PM monthly #43 + pinned
Trades
326,026
Markets
14,433
Volume
$170.6M
Top consensus positions
7 in listed consensus markets · 5 of 7 on the consensus side (71%)- Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026?Yes $145K · now 47¢ · in at 44¢with the consensus (60% of 20)
- Will Bilibili Gaming win Worlds 2026?Yes $1.6K · now 15¢ · in at 10¢with the consensus (85% of 13)
- Will Dplus KIA win Worlds 2026?Yes $1.4K · now 8¢ · in at 11¢with the consensus (88% of 17)
- Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2026?No $37 · now 77¢ · in at 72¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Nothing Ever Happens: ObamaNothing $33 · now 95¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
- Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026? No $24 · now 94¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
- Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026?No $7 · now 25¢ · in at 29¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
4,628 settled consensus markets · held side won 52% at an average entry of 49¢- Esports
+4 pts
side won 54% of 1091 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +3%
- College Basketball
+5 pts
side won 54% of 523 · avg entry 49¢
ROI −8%
- NBA
+4 pts
side won 52% of 887 · avg entry 49¢
ROI +9%
Weakest: Tennis — held side won 43% of 412 at an average 44¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI −6%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 14%(won 23% of 643)
- 30–50¢: 43%(won 46% of 1991)
- 50–70¢: 29%(won 59% of 1343)
- 70¢ and up: 14%(won 80% of 651)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.