Will Washington Spirit win on 2026-11-08?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 52¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 33%
$2.6K
-$20.84
49.5¢ → 51.5¢
+4% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 51.6¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$38.69 | 51% 27227-25781 (53008) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Yesavg 49.2¢ | $847.9 | $860.84 | +$12.95 | 50% 21550-21844 (43394) |
TH TheComboConnoisseur | Yesavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$5 | 53% 1125-987 (2112) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 49.3¢ | $19.7 | $10.01 | -$0.5 | 58% 47503-34297 (81800) |
 rayvanmechelenCTR<$100 | Noavg 50.9¢ | $10 | $9.82 | +$0.21 | 53% 2699-2381 (5080) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $2.3 | $2.5 | +$0.2 | 50% 26409-26025 (52434) |
Invested
$1,227.15
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$38.69
Record
51%
27227-25781 (53008)
Invested
$847.9
Value
$860.84
PnL
+$12.95
Record
50%
21550-21844 (43394)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$5
Record
53%
1125-987 (2112)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$19.7
Value
$10.01
PnL
-$0.5
Record
58%
47503-34297 (81800)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100Invested
$10
Value
$9.82
PnL
+$0.21
Record
53%
2699-2381 (5080)
Invested
$2.3
Value
$2.5
PnL
+$0.2
Record
50%
26409-26025 (52434)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.