Consensus PnL $333K · win rate 78% (283–82, n=365) · PM monthly #538 · holds 31 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$333.0K
Record
283W / 82L
Win Rate
78.0%
of 365 settled
Batting Avg
54.8%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#493
Source
PM monthly #538 + pinned
Trades
75,808
Markets
993
Volume
$28.5M
Top consensus positions
31 in listed consensus markets · 26 of 31 on the consensus side (84%)- Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?No $45K · now 93¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (79% of 19)
- Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Yes $21K · now 78¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (70% of 37)
- Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?No $20K · now 79¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (72% of 26)
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?Yes $20K · now 71¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (85% of 28)
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No $16K · now 89¢ · in at 77¢with the consensus (57% of 54)
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?Yes $9.5K · now 74¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (54% of 26)
- Will there be no Hormuz agreement?Yes $7.9K · now 97¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (67% of 15)
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?Yes $7.6K · now 28¢ · in at 23¢with the consensus (69% of 31)
Specialties
589 settled consensus markets · held side won 78% at an average entry of 76¢- Geopolitics
+3 pts
side won 77% of 377 · avg entry 74¢
ROI +1%
- Elections
+8 pts
side won 86% of 44 · avg entry 79¢
ROI +1%
- Politics
+5 pts
side won 86% of 37 · avg entry 82¢
ROI +3%
Weakest: Economy — held side won 85% of 13 at an average 88¢ entry (−3 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 12%(won 11% of 72)
- 30–50¢: 5%(won 37% of 27)
- 50–70¢: 12%(won 63% of 71)
- 70¢ and up: 71%(won 95% of 419)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.