Consensus PnL $19K · win rate 69% (296–135, n=431) · was PM monthly #998 · holds 6 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$19.5K
Record
296W / 135L
Win Rate
69.0%
of 431 settled
Batting Avg
64.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#785
Source
PM monthly #998
Trades
431
Markets
518
Volume
$6.3M
Top consensus positions
6 in listed consensus markets · 6 of 6 on the consensus side (100%)- Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?Yes $7.9K · now 71¢ · in at 60¢with the consensus (88% of 9)
- Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?Yes $2.8K · now 26¢ · in at 31¢with the consensus (88% of 8)
- Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $2.3K · now 72¢ · in at 72¢with the consensus (68% of 69)
- Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?Yes $1.4K · now 28¢ · in at 28¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
- Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?Yes $1.2K · now 73¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (100% of 6)
- Will Porto win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Yes $64 · now 0¢ · in at 0¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
Specialties
418 settled consensus markets · held side won 76% at an average entry of 73¢- Soccer
+4 pts
side won 84% of 164 · avg entry 80¢
ROI +4%
- Finance
+5 pts
side won 84% of 73 · avg entry 78¢
ROI +1%
- Other Sports
+24 pts
side won 80% of 10 · avg entry 56¢
ROI +11%
Weakest: Entertainment — held side won 88% of 26 at an average 96¢ entry (−7 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 16%(won 14% of 66)
- 30–50¢: 5%(won 33% of 21)
- 50–70¢: 11%(won 67% of 45)
- 70¢ and up: 68%(won 95% of 286)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.