Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (61%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Papertrade FDV above $100M one day after launch?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 40¢ · $9K held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 50%
$8.7K
$-2.8K
61.3¢ → 39.5¢
-36% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 40%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 61%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-10 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Late
307h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 gatonekkiCTR | Yesavg 65.5¢ | $6.5K | $3.9K | $-2.6K | 63% 22-13 (35) |
OD odsowner | Noavg 66¢ | $3.8K | $3.5K | -$319.22 | 55% 153-127 (280) |
 manekinekoCTR | Yesavg 35.3¢ | $478.8 | $536.32 | +$57.52 | 84% 365-71 (436) |
 balthazar | Noavg 64¢ | $433.4 | $409.92 | -$23.48 | 61% 21355-13647 (35002) |
 2B9S | Noavg 18¢ | $54 | $181.5 | +$127.5 | 18% 3833-17382 (21215) |
MU muddyrcCTR | Yesavg 43¢ | $155.18 | $142.55 | -$12.63 | 51% 230-218 (448) |
gatonekkiCTRInvested
$6,549.99
Value
$3.9K
PnL
$-2.6K
Record
63%
22-13 (35)
Invested
$3,838.7
Value
$3.5K
PnL
-$319.22
Record
55%
153-127 (280)
manekinekoCTRInvested
$478.8
Value
$536.32
PnL
+$57.52
Record
84%
365-71 (436)
balthazarInvested
$433.4
Value
$409.92
PnL
-$23.48
Record
61%
21355-13647 (35002)
2B9SInvested
$54
Value
$181.5
PnL
+$127.5
Record
18%
3833-17382 (21215)
Invested
$155.18
Value
$142.55
PnL
-$12.63
Record
51%
230-218 (448)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
39.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.