Will CA Grau win on 2026-11-01?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 90¢ · $503 held · ended Nov 1

Yes11¢No89¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$502.51

Combined PnL

-$189.96

Smart Money Entry

86.7¢ → 89.5¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$401.35

Total Shares702

Combined PnL-$207.73

Yes3 traders

Total Value$101.16

Total Shares612

Combined PnL+$17.77

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 89¢	$268.43	$156.84	-$111.59	50% 33888-33462 (67350)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 89¢	$267	$156	-$111	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 73¢	$73.65	$88.51	+$14.86	48% 8991-9637 (18628)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.2¢	$57.24	$69.16	+$11.92	50% 25689-25525 (51214)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$24	$22.4	-$1.6	54% 57187-49444 (106631)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 10.8¢	$2.15	$9.6	+$7.45	52% 7507-6801 (14308)

SnakeBall

Invested

$268.43

Value

$156.84

PnL

-$111.59

Record

50%

33888-33462 (67350)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$267

Value

$156

PnL

-$111

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$73.65

Value

$88.51

PnL

+$14.86

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$57.24

Value

$69.16

PnL

+$11.92

Record

50%

25689-25525 (51214)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24

Value

$22.4

PnL

-$1.6

Record

54%

57187-49444 (106631)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.15

Value

$9.6

PnL

+$7.45

Record

52%

7507-6801 (14308)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.