Will Estoril Praia vs. CS Marítimo end in a draw?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 64¢ · $481 held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$481.16
-$46.54
72¢ → 64¢
-11% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 64%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 72¢ | $303.46 | $276.88 | -$26.58 | 51% 47136-44473 (91609) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 72¢ | $153.18 | $135.8 | -$17.38 | 46% 30568-35672 (66240) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $53.63 | $47.21 | -$6.42 | 50% 27934-27381 (55315) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | $12.58 | $16.27 | +$3.69 | 49% 2142-2260 (4402) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $3.45 | $3.13 | -$0.33 | 52% 9497-8605 (18102) |
BL BlackMamba08CTR<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | $1.4 | $1.88 | +$0.48 | 47% 116-130 (246) |
Invested
$303.46
Value
$276.88
PnL
-$26.58
Record
51%
47136-44473 (91609)
Invested
$153.18
Value
$135.8
PnL
-$17.38
Record
46%
30568-35672 (66240)
Invested
$53.63
Value
$47.21
PnL
-$6.42
Record
50%
27934-27381 (55315)
Invested
$12.58
Value
$16.27
PnL
+$3.69
Record
49%
2142-2260 (4402)
Invested
$3.45
Value
$3.13
PnL
-$0.33
Record
52%
9497-8605 (18102)
Invested
$1.4
Value
$1.88
PnL
+$0.48
Record
47%
116-130 (246)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.