SC Braga leading at halftime?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$1.0K
-$371.67
74.5¢ → 100¢
+34% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 67.9¢ | $494.3 | $371.43 | -$122.87 | 54% 57187-49444 (106631) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 69.1¢ | $478.66 | $353.41 | -$125.24 | 50% 25689-25525 (51214) |
 ZaiZoiBele | Noavg 99¢ | $345.24 | $177.85 | -$167.39 | 80% 5087-1257 (6344) |
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR<$100 | Yesavg 41¢ | $83.23 | $99.47 | +$16.24 | 55% 1781-1468 (3249) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $0.58 | $28.29 | +$27.71 | 58% 10691-7671 (18362) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $1.01 | $0.89 | -$0.12 | 58% 42718-31089 (73807) |
RN1Invested
$494.3
Value
$371.43
PnL
-$122.87
Record
54%
57187-49444 (106631)
Invested
$478.66
Value
$353.41
PnL
-$125.24
Record
50%
25689-25525 (51214)
ZaiZoiBeleInvested
$345.24
Value
$177.85
PnL
-$167.39
Record
80%
5087-1257 (6344)
Invested
$83.23
Value
$99.47
PnL
+$16.24
Record
55%
1781-1468 (3249)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$0.58
Value
$28.29
PnL
+$27.71
Record
58%
10691-7671 (18362)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$1.01
Value
$0.89
PnL
-$0.12
Record
58%
42718-31089 (73807)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.