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4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 96¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$1.8K
$38.9
86.7¢ → 96.4¢
+11% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tenebrus7 | Noavg 86.4¢ | $770.91 | $857.74 | +$86.84 | 73% 2953-1072 (4025) |
 4751346 | Noavg 87.6¢ | $596.33 | $653.18 | +$56.85 | 72% 1257-483 (1740) |
KR Krass | Noavg 88¢ | $176 | $192.7 | +$16.7 | 74% 452-155 (607) |
RO rocky42019CTR | Yesavg 12¢ | $144.1 | $43.1 | -$98.42 | 42% 1725-2358 (4083) |
 TheKinginYellow<$100 | Noavg 73.6¢ | $31.03 | $40.59 | +$9.57 | 68% 830-398 (1228) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $60 | $27.38 | -$32.63 | 18% 3833-17376 (21209) |
Tenebrus7Invested
$770.91
Value
$857.74
PnL
+$86.84
Record
73%
2953-1072 (4025)
4751346Invested
$596.33
Value
$653.18
PnL
+$56.85
Record
72%
1257-483 (1740)
Invested
$176
Value
$192.7
PnL
+$16.7
Record
74%
452-155 (607)
Invested
$144.1
Value
$43.1
PnL
-$98.42
Record
42%
1725-2358 (4083)
TheKinginYellow<$100Invested
$31.03
Value
$40.59
PnL
+$9.57
Record
68%
830-398 (1228)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$60
Value
$27.38
PnL
-$32.63
Record
18%
3833-17376 (21209)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.