Consensus PnL -$228K · win rate 60% (112–75, n=187) · hand-picked wallet · holds 46 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-227.7K
Record
112W / 75L
Win Rate
60.0%
of 187 settled
Batting Avg
63.9%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1170
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
15,030
Markets
419
Volume
$4.4M
Top consensus positions
46 in listed consensus markets · 46 of 46 on the consensus side (100%)- Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?No $1.6K · now 84¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
- Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $330 · now 1¢ · in at 0¢with the consensus (100% of 11)
- Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $330 · now 1¢ · in at 0¢with the consensus (100% of 14)
- Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $300 · now 1¢ · in at 0¢with the consensus (100% of 10)
- Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes $208 · now 1¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (96% of 24)
- Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $165 · now 1¢ · in at 0¢with the consensus (100% of 14)
- Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes $144 · now 11¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (80% of 45)
- Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $135 · now 0¢ · in at 0¢with the consensus (100% of 13)
Specialties
295 settled consensus markets · held side won 47% at an average entry of 46¢- Crypto
+11 pts
side won 92% of 36 · avg entry 81¢
ROI +10%
- Elections
+2 pts
side won 17% of 130 · avg entry 15¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: Economy — held side won 7% of 28 at an average 10¢ entry (−3 pts against the price), ROI +2%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 48%(won 3% of 141)
- 30–50¢: 2%(won 50% of 6)
- 50–70¢: 6%(won 61% of 18)
- 70¢ and up: 44%(won 93% of 130)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.