Consensus PnL $144K · win rate 71% (995–402, n=1397) · hand-picked wallet · holds 11 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$144.2K
Record
995W / 402L
Win Rate
71.0%
of 1397 settled
Batting Avg
55.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#685
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
21,427
Markets
1,730
Volume
$3.2M
Top consensus positions
11 in listed consensus markets · 11 of 11 on the consensus side (100%)- Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?No $13K · now 98¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (92% of 26)
- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $9.4K · now 95¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (79% of 106)
- Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?No $7.8K · now 97¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (92% of 50)
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $7.6K · now 95¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (86% of 158)
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes $7.4K · now 86¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (87% of 46)
- Iran leadership change by December 31?No $7.2K · now 87¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (75% of 53)
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $3.2K · now 65¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (67% of 133)
- Tusk out by December 31?No $2.3K · now 93¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
Specialties
1,209 settled consensus markets · held side won 69% at an average entry of 63¢- Finance
+23 pts
side won 88% of 25 · avg entry 65¢
ROI +20%
- Geopolitics
+10 pts
side won 79% of 166 · avg entry 69¢
ROI +11%
- Crypto
+10 pts
side won 71% of 171 · avg entry 62¢
ROI +7%
Weakest: Elections — held side won 55% of 42 at an average 60¢ entry (−5 pts against the price), ROI +2%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 14%(won 16% of 174)
- 30–50¢: 15%(won 51% of 176)
- 50–70¢: 24%(won 71% of 286)
- 70¢ and up: 47%(won 89% of 573)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.