RFK Jr. Out by December 31?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 79¢ · $3K held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$3.0K
$284.91
69.2¢ → 78.5¢
+13% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Late
4592h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 DEGENKHAN | Noavg 69.5¢ | $1.9K | $2.1K | +$261.65 | 66% 1107-565 (1672) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Noavg 74.9¢ | $274 | $290.05 | +$16.05 | 56% 15372-11923 (27295) |
0X 0x75d1B199a96801338e67a6eFAa35C0028eA87A5F-1770658242710CTR | Yesavg 27.8¢ | $289.02 | $220.5 | -$55.82 | 51% 2097-1976 (4073) |
SI singularityman | Noavg 51.7¢ | $111.28 | $163.54 | +$55.49 | 42% 138-193 (331) |
 4751346 | Noavg 73.4¢ | $146.8 | $152 | +$6.2 | 72% 1257-483 (1740) |
LI lineth<$100 | Noavg 60.6¢ | $4.68 | $6.03 | +$1.34 | 41% 245-350 (595) |
DEGENKHANInvested
$1,875.77
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$261.65
Record
66%
1107-565 (1672)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$274
Value
$290.05
PnL
+$16.05
Record
56%
15372-11923 (27295)
Invested
$289.02
Value
$220.5
PnL
-$55.82
Record
51%
2097-1976 (4073)
Invested
$111.28
Value
$163.54
PnL
+$55.49
Record
42%
138-193 (331)
4751346Invested
$146.8
Value
$152
PnL
+$6.2
Record
72%
1257-483 (1740)
Invested
$4.68
Value
$6.03
PnL
+$1.34
Record
41%
245-350 (595)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.