Spread: Universitatea Craiova CS (-2.5)
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold FC Botoşani (50%) · FC Botoşani at 93¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
FC Botoşani
6
FC Botoşani 50%
$2.4K
$166.57
77.5¢ → 93¢
+20% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralFC Botoşani at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | FC Botoşaniavg 90.9¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$19.36 | 59% 46920-33177 (80097) |
LU LuckyLoo | FC Botoşaniavg 52¢ | $453.46 | $601.71 | +$148.25 | 49% 13022-13588 (26610) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Universitatea Craiova CSavg 11.3¢ | $25.5 | $69.75 | +$44.25 | 48% 8966-9599 (18565) |
 VeryLucky888 | FC Botoşaniavg 66.8¢ | $129.41 | $40.76 | -$45.65 | 58% 42700-31074 (73774) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Universitatea Craiova CSavg 8¢ | $28.62 | $29.72 | +$1.1 | 50% 25666-25500 (51166) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Universitatea Craiova CSavg 43.3¢ | $2.6 | $1.86 | -$0.74 | 53% 5642-5057 (10699) |
Invested
$1,599.38
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$19.36
Record
59%
46920-33177 (80097)
Invested
$453.46
Value
$601.71
PnL
+$148.25
Record
49%
13022-13588 (26610)
Invested
$25.5
Value
$69.75
PnL
+$44.25
Record
48%
8966-9599 (18565)
VeryLucky888Invested
$129.41
Value
$40.76
PnL
-$45.65
Record
58%
42700-31074 (73774)
Invested
$28.62
Value
$29.72
PnL
+$1.1
Record
50%
25666-25500 (51166)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.6
Value
$1.86
PnL
-$0.74
Record
53%
5642-5057 (10699)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.