Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-11-08?
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (29%) · Yes at 52¢ · $17K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 29%
$17.3K
-$400.02
53.3¢ → 51.5¢
-3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
29h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
29% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA darkumbreon88 | Yesavg 53.3¢ | $12.4K | $11.9K | -$411.13 | 64% 1958-1090 (3048) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 47.9¢ | $5.1K | $5.1K | +$5.64 | 51% 25716-24429 (50145) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Noavg 48.2¢ | $177.78 | $176.87 | +$5.53 | 50% 21156-21414 (42570) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Yesavg 53¢ | $39.36 | $38.98 | -$0.38 | 58% 21143-15371 (36514) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Noavg 47.3¢ | $12.15 | $12.33 | +$0.18 | 53% 16798-14919 (31717) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $5.59 | $5.73 | +$0.14 | 48% 61036-65868 (126904) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $4.62 | $4.62 | +$0 | 50% 25811-25501 (51312) |
Invested
$12,358.72
Value
$11.9K
PnL
-$411.13
Record
64%
1958-1090 (3048)
Invested
$5,095.19
Value
$5.1K
PnL
+$5.64
Record
51%
25716-24429 (50145)
Invested
$177.78
Value
$176.87
PnL
+$5.53
Record
50%
21156-21414 (42570)
Invested
$39.36
Value
$38.98
PnL
-$0.38
Record
58%
21143-15371 (36514)
Invested
$12.15
Value
$12.33
PnL
+$0.18
Record
53%
16798-14919 (31717)
Invested
$5.59
Value
$5.73
PnL
+$0.14
Record
48%
61036-65868 (126904)
Invested
$4.62
Value
$4.62
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
25811-25501 (51312)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.