Exact Score: Juventus FC 0 - 2 SSC Napoli?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 100¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$9.3K
$183.46
95.4¢ → 100¢
+5% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 95.3¢ | $5.4K | $5.4K | +$10.61 | 50% 33888-33462 (67350) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 95.6¢ | $3.0K | $3.1K | +$137.7 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 95.4¢ | $667.8 | $669.9 | +$2.1 | 49% 13032-13607 (26639) |
 RN1CTR | Yesavg 4.2¢ | $100.38 | $139.81 | +$39.43 | 54% 57187-49444 (106631) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 95.6¢ | $33.87 | $26.73 | -$6.39 | 56% 14257-11059 (25316) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $0.96 | $0.96 | -$0 | 53% 5677-5082 (10759) |
Invested
$5,365.97
Value
$5.4K
PnL
+$10.61
Record
50%
33888-33462 (67350)
Invested
$2,990.73
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$137.7
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
Invested
$667.8
Value
$669.9
PnL
+$2.1
Record
49%
13032-13607 (26639)
RN1CTRInvested
$100.38
Value
$139.81
PnL
+$39.43
Record
54%
57187-49444 (106631)
Invested
$33.87
Value
$26.73
PnL
-$6.39
Record
56%
14257-11059 (25316)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$0.96
Value
$0.96
PnL
-$0
Record
53%
5677-5082 (10759)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.