Exact Score: SS Lazio 3 - 0 Cagliari Calcio?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $31K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$31.0K
$717.71
91¢ → 100¢
+10% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO forecastication4 | Noavg 91¢ | $13.7K | $14.0K | +$375 | 49% 1197-1225 (2422) |
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3 | Noavg 91¢ | $13.0K | $13.3K | +$285.62 | 50% 2543-2531 (5074) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 91.7¢ | $1.8K | $2.0K | +$25.45 | 50% 33839-33425 (67264) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 91¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$19.11 | 58% 42674-31054 (73728) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Noavg 91.4¢ | $116.12 | $126.94 | +$10.82 | 57% 29226-21613 (50839) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 91.3¢ | $96.19 | $97.9 | +$1.72 | 56% 14224-11030 (25254) |
Invested
$13,650
Value
$14.0K
PnL
+$375
Record
49%
1197-1225 (2422)
Invested
$12,995.62
Value
$13.3K
PnL
+$285.62
Record
50%
2543-2531 (5074)
Invested
$1,821
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$25.45
Record
50%
33839-33425 (67264)
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,638
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$19.11
Record
58%
42674-31054 (73728)
Invested
$116.12
Value
$126.94
PnL
+$10.82
Record
57%
29226-21613 (50839)
Invested
$96.19
Value
$97.9
PnL
+$1.72
Record
56%
14224-11030 (25254)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.