Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (75%). 6 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will SSC Napoli vs. SS Lazio end in a draw?

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (55%) · Yes at 26¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 8

Yes26¢No74¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 55%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$18.92

Smart Money Entry

26.1¢ → 25.5¢

-2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors No 75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes26%

No75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$728.65

Total Shares2,756

Combined PnL+$12.57

No5 traders

Total Value$653.48

Total Shares877

Combined PnL+$6.35

Yes — 55%No — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GC GC-PARB<$100	Noavg 73¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$11.9	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
└ No leg	Noavg 73¢	$702.72	$707.53	+$4.81
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 26¢	$368.57	$375.66	+$7.09
NM NM-PCTR	Yesavg 26¢	$509.36	$519.16	+$9.8	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 74¢	$273.04	$274.85	+$1.81	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 73.8¢	$159.87	$161.35	+$1.49	58% 23579-16943 (40522)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 26¢	$130	$132.5	+$2.5	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 73.9¢	$120.98	$121.93	+$0.95	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Noavg 71¢	$71.05	$73	+$1.95	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$47.59	$47.59	+$0.92	53% 17085-15197 (32282)
PA Pan9X<$100	Noavg 74¢	$22.2	$22.35	+$0.15	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$17.33	$16.1	-$0.31	48% 7452-7984 (15436)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$11.58	$11.36	-$0.22	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$2.06	$1.95	-$0.11	33% 1194-2378 (3572)

GC-PARB<$100

Invested

$1,071.29

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$11.9

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

Both legs:

Invested

$509.36

Value

$519.16

PnL

+$9.8

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

LightParadox

Invested

$273.04

Value

$274.85

PnL

+$1.81

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

ghorrock

Invested

$159.87

Value

$161.35

PnL

+$1.49

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$130

Value

$132.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

38791873984189

Invested

$120.98

Value

$121.93

PnL

+$0.95

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Flaznorp<$100

Invested

$71.05

Value

$73

PnL

+$1.95

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$47.59

Value

$47.59

PnL

+$0.92

Record

53%

17085-15197 (32282)

Pan9X<$100

Invested

$22.2

Value

$22.35

PnL

+$0.15

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

OddstormCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.33

Value

$16.1

PnL

-$0.31

Record

48%

7452-7984 (15436)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.58

Value

$11.36

PnL

-$0.22

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.06

Value

$1.95

PnL

-$0.11

Record

33%

1194-2378 (3572)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors No 75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance27.5%

25.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$263.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

364.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.