Will SS Lazio win on 2026-11-08?
8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 69¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 89%
$1.4K
-$35.82
69.9¢ → 68.5¢
-2% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 69%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 68%
Freshness
Mature
34h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 70.2¢ | $772.26 | $753.55 | -$18.71 | 51% 25699-24415 (50114) |
SE sentrio | Noavg 70¢ | $181.5 | $177.78 | -$3.72 | 50% 25801-25492 (51293) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 69.3¢ | $180.75 | $177.42 | -$3.33 | 64% 9962-5592 (15554) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 69¢ | $137.86 | $135.86 | -$2 | 64% 9920-5524 (15444) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 69¢ | $125.58 | $123.76 | +$0.91 | 51% 37655-36884 (74539) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 71.6¢ | $395.34 | $33.14 | -$9.11 | 58% 46658-33622 (80280) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100 | Yesavg 30.6¢ | $24.18 | $24.88 | +$0.7 | 69% 7203-3186 (10389) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $7 | $6.8 | -$0.2 | 53% 16795-14918 (31713) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 71.8¢ | $37.79 | $5.41 | -$0.37 | 48% 61030-65863 (126893) |
Invested
$772.26
Value
$753.55
PnL
-$18.71
Record
51%
25699-24415 (50114)
Invested
$181.5
Value
$177.78
PnL
-$3.72
Record
50%
25801-25492 (51293)
Invested
$180.75
Value
$177.42
PnL
-$3.33
Record
64%
9962-5592 (15554)
Invested
$137.86
Value
$135.86
PnL
-$2
Record
64%
9920-5524 (15444)
Invested
$125.58
Value
$123.76
PnL
+$0.91
Record
51%
37655-36884 (74539)
VeryLucky888Invested
$395.34
Value
$33.14
PnL
-$9.11
Record
58%
46658-33622 (80280)
Invested
$24.18
Value
$24.88
PnL
+$0.7
Record
69%
7203-3186 (10389)
Invested
$7
Value
$6.8
PnL
-$0.2
Record
53%
16795-14918 (31713)
Invested
$37.79
Value
$5.41
PnL
-$0.37
Record
48%
61030-65863 (126893)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.