Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (54%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Torino FC win on 2026-11-07?
8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 47¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 89%
$4.0K
$5.26
46.3¢ → 46.5¢
+0% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 47%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 54%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 71%
Freshness
Late
73h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 46.5¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | -$1.08 | 51% 27051-25620 (52671) |
DA darkumbreon88 | Yesavg 53¢ | $904.43 | $904.43 | +$0 | 64% 2037-1134 (3171) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Noavg 46¢ | $548.59 | $548.59 | +$0 | 50% 28899-28703 (57602) |
NM NM-PCTR | Noavg 46¢ | $370.14 | $370.14 | +$0 | 64% 10178-5715 (15893) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 46¢ | $342.12 | $342.16 | +$3.76 | 58% 47475-34259 (81734) |
GC GC-PCTR | Noavg 46¢ | $206.34 | $208.58 | +$2.24 | 64% 10176-5763 (15939) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $23 | $23 | +$0.25 | 48% 62379-67237 (129616) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $7.87 | $7.87 | +$0.09 | 53% 16963-15085 (32048) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $2.3 | $2.3 | +$0 | 50% 26383-26006 (52389) |
Invested
$1,580.54
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$1.08
Record
51%
27051-25620 (52671)
Invested
$904.43
Value
$904.43
PnL
+$0
Record
64%
2037-1134 (3171)
Invested
$548.59
Value
$548.59
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
28899-28703 (57602)
Invested
$370.14
Value
$370.14
PnL
+$0
Record
64%
10178-5715 (15893)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$342.12
Value
$342.16
PnL
+$3.76
Record
58%
47475-34259 (81734)
Invested
$206.34
Value
$208.58
PnL
+$2.24
Record
64%
10176-5763 (15939)
Invested
$23
Value
$23
PnL
+$0.25
Record
48%
62379-67237 (129616)
Invested
$7.87
Value
$7.87
PnL
+$0.09
Record
53%
16963-15085 (32048)
Invested
$2.3
Value
$2.3
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
26383-26006 (52389)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.