Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (61%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
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4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 40¢ · $4K held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$3.7K
$485.77
34.1¢ → 39.5¢
+16% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 40%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 61%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Late
1581h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 AllByMyseIfCTR | Noavg 34.7¢ | $2.4K | $2.8K | +$361.34 | 65% 671-357 (1028) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Noavg 27¢ | $243 | $355.5 | +$112.5 | 53% 1174-1056 (2230) |
CO cocococococoCTR | Noavg 37¢ | $326.48 | $348.54 | +$22.06 | 52% 1665-1535 (3200) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Yesavg 71¢ | $142 | $121 | -$21 | 56% 15372-11923 (27295) |
LI lissartterCTR<$100 | Noavg 31.9¢ | $61.06 | $75.89 | +$14.84 | 42% 5284-7234 (12518) |
 2B9S<$100 | Yesavg 67.9¢ | $26.86 | $22.89 | -$3.97 | 18% 3833-17376 (21209) |
AllByMyseIfCTRInvested
$2,406.17
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$361.34
Record
65%
671-357 (1028)
Invested
$243
Value
$355.5
PnL
+$112.5
Record
53%
1174-1056 (2230)
Invested
$326.48
Value
$348.54
PnL
+$22.06
Record
52%
1665-1535 (3200)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$142
Value
$121
PnL
-$21
Record
56%
15372-11923 (27295)
Invested
$61.06
Value
$75.89
PnL
+$14.84
Record
42%
5284-7234 (12518)
2B9S<$100Invested
$26.86
Value
$22.89
PnL
-$3.97
Record
18%
3833-17376 (21209)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
39.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.