Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club vs. Al Ahli Saudi Club: O/U 4.5
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 83¢ · $2K held · ended Sep 8
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 100%
$1.9K
$581.85
53.2¢ → 82.5¢
+55% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Underavg 52¢ | $1.0K | $1.6K | +$582.31 | 53% 60045-52422 (112467) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 59¢ | $306.14 | $296.39 | -$9.75 | 58% 50265-36309 (86574) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Underavg 78¢ | $16.88 | $17.85 | +$0.97 | 58% 45420-32909 (78329) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100 | Underavg 31¢ | $4.49 | $11.95 | +$7.46 | 59% 31848-22485 (54333) |
US User7429<$100 | Underavg 74¢ | $7.4 | $8.25 | +$0.85 | 56% 8920-7126 (16046) |
RN1Invested
$1,003.42
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$582.31
Record
53%
60045-52422 (112467)
Invested
$306.14
Value
$296.39
PnL
-$9.75
Record
58%
50265-36309 (86574)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$16.88
Value
$17.85
PnL
+$0.97
Record
58%
45420-32909 (78329)
Invested
$4.49
Value
$11.95
PnL
+$7.46
Record
59%
31848-22485 (54333)
Invested
$7.4
Value
$8.25
PnL
+$0.85
Record
56%
8920-7126 (16046)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.