Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 87¢ · $4K held · ends Dec 31
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Research candidate
No
6
No 100%
$4.1K
-$130.75
89.3¢ → 86.6¢
-3% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
Research candidateNo at 87%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 72%
Freshness
Late
710h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AV Avamax | Noavg 90.1¢ | $1.8K | $1.7K | -$70 | 81% 421-101 (522) |
 XAE12Archangel | Noavg 90.2¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | -$51.61 | 66% 784-407 (1191) |
0X 0xe617861a96631d7cefdb1ad43e95c33b5946f251 | Noavg 90.2¢ | $1.0K | $960.08 | -$39.92 | 89% 538-64 (602) |
DI Dimpled-Foal<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $82.32 | $92.58 | +$10.26 | 54% 229-195 (424) |
PE peepeepooppoop<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $68.42 | $88.6 | +$20.18 | 52% 2050-1868 (3918) |
QM QMG-CORE<$100 | Noavg 83.2¢ | $8.32 | $8.66 | +$0.34 | 77% 1408-416 (1824) |
Invested
$1,802
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$70
Record
81%
421-101 (522)
XAE12ArchangelInvested
$1,309.1
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$51.61
Record
66%
784-407 (1191)
Invested
$1,000
Value
$960.08
PnL
-$39.92
Record
89%
538-64 (602)
Invested
$82.32
Value
$92.58
PnL
+$10.26
Record
54%
229-195 (424)
Invested
$68.42
Value
$88.6
PnL
+$20.18
Record
52%
2050-1868 (3918)
Invested
$8.32
Value
$8.66
PnL
+$0.34
Record
77%
1408-416 (1824)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.