Consensus PnL $12K · win rate 92% (293–25, n=318) · was PM monthly #809 · holds 32 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$11.7K
Record
293W / 25L
Win Rate
92.0%
of 318 settled
Batting Avg
50.6%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#205
Source
PM monthly #809 + pinned
Trades
126,188
Markets
575
Volume
$11.7M
Top consensus positions
32 in listed consensus markets · 31 of 32 on the consensus side (97%)- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No $484K · now 98¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (85% of 40)
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?No $220K · now 98¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (93% of 15)
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No $197K · now 97¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (90% of 41)
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?No $90K · now 84¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (63% of 24)
- Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?No $52K · now 93¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (79% of 19)
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No $31K · now 96¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (88% of 80)
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December?No $25K · now 98¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (85% of 13)
- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?No $17K · now 96¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (81% of 31)
Specialties
405 settled consensus markets · held side won 92% at an average entry of 91¢- Economy
+7 pts
side won 91% of 11 · avg entry 84¢
ROI +17%
Weakest: Tech — held side won 83% of 18 at an average 84¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 2%(won 10% of 10)
- 30–50¢: 2%(won 50% of 8)
- 50–70¢: 4%(won 53% of 15)
- 70¢ and up: 92%(won 97% of 372)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.