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4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 81¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
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Research candidate
No
6
No 67%
$2.0K
-$138.49
87.8¢ → 81¢
-8% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
Research candidateNo at 81%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Late
2865h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QM QMG-CORE | Noavg 87¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | -$68.8 | 77% 1408-416 (1824) |
TH thoodr | Noavg 91¢ | $455 | $402.5 | -$40 | 96% 631-24 (655) |
KE Kevindoto | Noavg 87¢ | $148.46 | $137.37 | -$6.83 | 80% 437-110 (547) |
 Talophex<$100 | Noavg 82.1¢ | $45.06 | $44.19 | -$0.87 | 91% 929-95 (1024) |
 TimeTravelerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 35.5¢ | $70.99 | $39 | -$32 | 41% 1986-2802 (4788) |
 tetraseCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9¢ | $9 | $19.5 | +$10 | 61% 839-544 (1383) |
Invested
$1,437.46
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$68.8
Record
77%
1408-416 (1824)
Invested
$455
Value
$402.5
PnL
-$40
Record
96%
631-24 (655)
Invested
$148.46
Value
$137.37
PnL
-$6.83
Record
80%
437-110 (547)
Talophex<$100Invested
$45.06
Value
$44.19
PnL
-$0.87
Record
91%
929-95 (1024)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100Invested
$70.99
Value
$39
PnL
-$32
Record
41%
1986-2802 (4788)
tetraseCTR<$100Invested
$9
Value
$19.5
PnL
+$10
Record
61%
839-544 (1383)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.