Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 67¢ · $5K held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$4.6K
-$354.96
66.5¢ → 66.5¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 67%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Late
639h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
7 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ST Stonktrader | Yesavg 66.5¢ | $2.3K | $2.3K | +$1.14 | 74% 168-59 (227) |
FU Fulgurator | Yesavg 66.4¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$2.27 | 92% 61-5 (66) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR | Noavg 52.5¢ | $947.93 | $599.87 | -$348.06 | 56% 15372-11923 (27295) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Yesavg 68¢ | $102.68 | $100.42 | -$2.27 | 53% 6690-5887 (12577) |
 PMTraderAdamCTR<$100 | Noavg 36.9¢ | $61.16 | $51.22 | -$9.94 | 77% 830-249 (1079) |
 JJo<$100 | Yesavg 64¢ | $48.26 | $50.15 | +$1.89 | 66% 944-496 (1440) |
Invested
$2,263.41
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$1.14
Record
74%
168-59 (227)
Invested
$1,573.78
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$2.27
Record
92%
61-5 (66)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTRInvested
$947.93
Value
$599.87
PnL
-$348.06
Record
56%
15372-11923 (27295)
Invested
$102.68
Value
$100.42
PnL
-$2.27
Record
53%
6690-5887 (12577)
PMTraderAdamCTR<$100Invested
$61.16
Value
$51.22
PnL
-$9.94
Record
77%
830-249 (1079)
JJo<$100Invested
$48.26
Value
$50.15
PnL
+$1.89
Record
66%
944-496 (1440)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.