Consensus PnL $266K · win rate 61% (676–426, n=1102) · hand-picked wallet · holds 36 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$265.6K
Record
676W / 426L
Win Rate
61.0%
of 1102 settled
Batting Avg
65.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1111
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
35,685
Markets
1,622
Volume
$24.7M
Top consensus positions
36 in listed consensus markets · 33 of 36 on the consensus side (92%)- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $26K · now 84¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (83% of 132)
- Blue wave in 2026?Yes $19K · now 88¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (60% of 15)
- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No $18K · now 70¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (76% of 92)
- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes $15K · now 72¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (80% of 86)
- Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?No $15K · now 99¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (81% of 47)
- Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?Yes $12K · now 99¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (80% of 25)
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No $12K · now 46¢ · in at 39¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes $8.1K · now 86¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (87% of 46)
Specialties
1,363 settled consensus markets · held side won 62% at an average entry of 62¢- Crypto
+5 pts
side won 75% of 63 · avg entry 69¢
ROI +1%
- Entertainment
+5 pts
side won 78% of 49 · avg entry 73¢
ROI +1%
- Tech
+3 pts
side won 93% of 28 · avg entry 90¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: Elections — held side won 43% of 293 at an average 45¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 31%(won 7% of 423)
- 30–50¢: 6%(won 32% of 88)
- 50–70¢: 7%(won 59% of 92)
- 70¢ and up: 56%(won 97% of 760)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.