Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by January 31, 2027?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 74¢ · $2K held · ends Feb 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$1.6K
$45.69
72.5¢ → 73.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 74%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Late
488h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Noavg 79.2¢ | $692.89 | $617.81 | -$75.08 | 56% 15372-11923 (27295) |
 zxdfbdfgngcxv | Noavg 65.5¢ | $543.07 | $608.56 | +$65.5 | 82% 1758-394 (2152) |
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR | Yesavg 21.4¢ | $136.16 | $168.58 | +$32.42 | 39% 1781-2832 (4613) |
 DragontreeCTR | Yesavg 18.2¢ | $80.96 | $118.2 | +$37.24 | 58% 1250-888 (2138) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 31¢ | $93 | $79.5 | -$13.5 | 53% 6690-5887 (12577) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 76.1¢ | $32.35 | $31.46 | -$0.89 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$692.89
Value
$617.81
PnL
-$75.08
Record
56%
15372-11923 (27295)
zxdfbdfgngcxvInvested
$543.07
Value
$608.56
PnL
+$65.5
Record
82%
1758-394 (2152)
Invested
$136.16
Value
$168.58
PnL
+$32.42
Record
39%
1781-2832 (4613)
DragontreeCTRInvested
$80.96
Value
$118.2
PnL
+$37.24
Record
58%
1250-888 (2138)
Invested
$93
Value
$79.5
PnL
-$13.5
Record
53%
6690-5887 (12577)
Invested
$32.35
Value
$31.46
PnL
-$0.89
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.