Chonburi FC vs. BG Pathum United: 1st Half O/U 0.5
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (88%) · Under at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 88%
$1.7K
$676.06
43.1¢ → 100¢
+132% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 40.8¢ | $447.51 | $1.1K | +$623.69 | 58% 48512-34664 (83176) |
LU LuckyLoo | Underavg 27¢ | $105.5 | $366.34 | +$231.71 | 49% 13479-14174 (27653) |
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 47¢ | $219.48 | $151.89 | -$67.6 | 51% 17613-16616 (34229) |
 RN1 | Underavg 53.3¢ | $171.12 | $97.92 | -$73.2 | 54% 58127-50358 (108485) |
DA dashattacker<$100 | Underavg 80.6¢ | $70.71 | $26.75 | -$43.96 | 72% 2670-1019 (3689) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Overavg 8¢ | $1.76 | $10.78 | +$9.02 | 50% 34699-34164 (68863) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $6.12 | $3.97 | -$2.15 | 53% 6371-5759 (12130) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $4.5 | $3.05 | -$1.45 | 51% 997-961 (1958) |
Invested
$447.51
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$623.69
Record
58%
48512-34664 (83176)
Invested
$105.5
Value
$366.34
PnL
+$231.71
Record
49%
13479-14174 (27653)
Invested
$219.48
Value
$151.89
PnL
-$67.6
Record
51%
17613-16616 (34229)
RN1Invested
$171.12
Value
$97.92
PnL
-$73.2
Record
54%
58127-50358 (108485)
Invested
$70.71
Value
$26.75
PnL
-$43.96
Record
72%
2670-1019 (3689)
Invested
$1.76
Value
$10.78
PnL
+$9.02
Record
50%
34699-34164 (68863)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$6.12
Value
$3.97
PnL
-$2.15
Record
53%
6371-5759 (12130)
Invested
$4.5
Value
$3.05
PnL
-$1.45
Record
51%
997-961 (1958)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.