Chonburi FC vs. BG Pathum United: O/U 1.5

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 59¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 2

Over42¢Under58¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$227.39

Smart Money Entry

49.9¢ → 58.5¢

+17% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over42%

Under59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares2,838

Combined PnL+$224.89

Over4 traders

Total Value$716.47

Total Shares1,787

Combined PnL+$2.5

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 47.1¢	$786.03	$1.0K	+$190.97	51% 17616-16619 (34235)
RN1	Underavg 54¢	$607.66	$641.42	+$33.76	54% 58149-50375 (108524)
alpheclabs2CTR	Overavg 36.4¢	$492.72	$527.73	+$35.01	49% 95-100 (195)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Overavg 39.8¢	$79.5	$85	+$5.5	56% 18390-14714 (33104)
SU suntoriCTR	Overavg 68.7¢	$114.94	$75.26	-$39.68	45% 12923-15690 (28613)
poshposhCTR<$100	Overavg 40¢	$26.81	$28.48	+$1.68	58% 11437-8289 (19726)
MO mouzsynapse<$100	Underavg 54¢	$20.33	$20.33	-$0	40% 1074-1634 (2708)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 54¢	$2.9	$3.06	+$0.16	50% 25008-24730 (49738)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$786.03

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$190.97

Record

51%

17616-16619 (34235)

RN1

Under

Invested

$607.66

Value

$641.42

PnL

+$33.76

Record

54%

58149-50375 (108524)

alpheclabs2CTR

Over

Invested

$492.72

Value

$527.73

PnL

+$35.01

Record

49%

95-100 (195)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$79.5

Value

$85

PnL

+$5.5

Record

56%

18390-14714 (33104)

suntoriCTR

Over

Invested

$114.94

Value

$75.26

PnL

-$39.68

Record

45%

12923-15690 (28613)

poshposhCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$26.81

Value

$28.48

PnL

+$1.68

Record

58%

11437-8289 (19726)

mouzsynapse<$100

Under

Invested

$20.33

Value

$20.33

PnL

-$0

Record

40%

1074-1634 (2708)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$2.9

Value

$3.06

PnL

+$0.16

Record

50%

25008-24730 (49738)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 59%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.