Trump declassifies new UFO files by November 15?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 94¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$15.6K
$680.41
89.8¢ → 94¢
+5% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Late
120h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 tetrase | Noavg 90.5¢ | $11.5K | $11.5K | +$425.79 | 61% 839-544 (1383) |
 smellyEllie | Noavg 87.6¢ | $3.5K | $3.8K | +$258.39 | 50% 970-988 (1958) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Noavg 93¢ | $136.21 | $139.14 | +$1.46 | 56% 15372-11923 (27295) |
LI lissartter<$100 | Noavg 86.4¢ | $77.06 | $83.71 | +$6.66 | 42% 5284-7234 (12518) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $24 | $12 | -$12 | 57% 3069-2356 (5425) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $10.21 | $10.32 | +$0.11 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
tetraseInvested
$11,497.85
Value
$11.5K
PnL
+$425.79
Record
61%
839-544 (1383)
smellyEllieInvested
$3,544.27
Value
$3.8K
PnL
+$258.39
Record
50%
970-988 (1958)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$136.21
Value
$139.14
PnL
+$1.46
Record
56%
15372-11923 (27295)
Invested
$77.06
Value
$83.71
PnL
+$6.66
Record
42%
5284-7234 (12518)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100Invested
$24
Value
$12
PnL
-$12
Record
57%
3069-2356 (5425)
Invested
$10.21
Value
$10.32
PnL
+$0.11
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.