Trump renames ICE to NICE by December 31?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 96¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$2.3K
$296.92
77.6¢ → 95.8¢
+23% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+10 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Late
664h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
10 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 vinii | Noavg 74.6¢ | $1.5K | $1.9K | +$426.48 | 74% 2795-1006 (3801) |
 tetrase | Noavg 94.4¢ | $339.08 | $325.18 | +$5.1 | 61% 839-544 (1383) |
 Rex416CTR | Yesavg 27.2¢ | $168.91 | $25.5 | -$143.42 | 57% 2537-1923 (4460) |
 DEGENKHAN | Noavg 87.1¢ | $287.65 | $21.09 | +$20.28 | 66% 1107-565 (1672) |
SI simplemanCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.9¢ | $30 | $18.4 | -$11.6 | 47% 456-520 (976) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $1.28 | $1.36 | +$0.08 | 47% 2036-2280 (4316) |
viniiInvested
$1,497.64
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$426.48
Record
74%
2795-1006 (3801)
tetraseInvested
$339.08
Value
$325.18
PnL
+$5.1
Record
61%
839-544 (1383)
Rex416CTRInvested
$168.91
Value
$25.5
PnL
-$143.42
Record
57%
2537-1923 (4460)
DEGENKHANInvested
$287.65
Value
$21.09
PnL
+$20.28
Record
66%
1107-565 (1672)
Invested
$30
Value
$18.4
PnL
-$11.6
Record
47%
456-520 (976)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$1.28
Value
$1.36
PnL
+$0.08
Record
47%
2036-2280 (4316)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.