Consensus PnL $37K · win rate 59% (2550–1759, n=4309) · PM monthly #407 · holds 20 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$37.3K
Record
2550W / 1759L
Win Rate
59.0%
of 4309 settled
Batting Avg
46.2%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1204
Source
PM monthly #407
Trades
36,346
Markets
5,418
Volume
$15.0M
Top consensus positions
20 in listed consensus markets · 6 of 20 on the consensus side (30%)- Will Republican House incumbents not win in between four and six nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?Yes $143 · now 89¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
- Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $139 · now 3¢ · in at 2¢with the consensus (100% of 21)
- Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary?No $125 · now 81¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (45% of 13)
- Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes $121 · now 71¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (82% of 53)
- Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?Yes $110 · now 12¢ · in at 32¢against the consensus (No)
- Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?Yes $103 · now 13¢ · in at 27¢against the consensus (No)
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?Yes $98 · now 4¢ · in at 8¢against the consensus (No)
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?Yes $57 · now 3¢ · in at 25¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
4,564 settled consensus markets · held side won 56% at an average entry of 56¢- Soccer
+2 pts
side won 64% of 620 · avg entry 62¢
ROI +5%
- Geopolitics
+3 pts
side won 64% of 462 · avg entry 61¢
ROI +2%
- Politics
+5 pts
side won 61% of 210 · avg entry 57¢
ROI +2%
Weakest: MMA — held side won 51% of 192 at an average 56¢ entry (−5 pts against the price), ROI −11%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 28%(won 7% of 1287)
- 30–50¢: 12%(won 36% of 541)
- 50–70¢: 14%(won 61% of 649)
- 70¢ and up: 46%(won 90% of 2087)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.