Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (61%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Trabzonspor win on 2026-11-08?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 40¢ · $833 held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$832.59
$93.3
39.2¢ → 39.5¢
+1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 40%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 61%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 40.5¢ | $390.1 | $380.08 | -$10.01 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
GA GaditimaCTR | Noavg 37¢ | $240.49 | $341.24 | +$100.75 | 47% 7503-8319 (15822) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Noavg 40¢ | $38.57 | $38.09 | -$0.48 | 49% 1844-1936 (3780) |
NM NM-PCTR<$100 | Noavg 39¢ | $30.67 | $31.07 | +$0.39 | 64% 10183-5729 (15912) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 39.8¢ | $30.77 | $30.56 | -$0.21 | 50% 26504-26107 (52611) |
FO forecastication4CTR<$100 | Noavg 39¢ | $6.63 | $8.93 | +$2.3 | 50% 1423-1429 (2852) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Noavg 41.2¢ | $2.06 | $2.63 | +$0.57 | 52% 9022-8174 (17196) |
Invested
$390.1
Value
$380.08
PnL
-$10.01
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Invested
$240.49
Value
$341.24
PnL
+$100.75
Record
47%
7503-8319 (15822)
Invested
$38.57
Value
$38.09
PnL
-$0.48
Record
49%
1844-1936 (3780)
Invested
$30.67
Value
$31.07
PnL
+$0.39
Record
64%
10183-5729 (15912)
Invested
$30.77
Value
$30.56
PnL
-$0.21
Record
50%
26504-26107 (52611)
Invested
$6.63
Value
$8.93
PnL
+$2.3
Record
50%
1423-1429 (2852)
Invested
$2.06
Value
$2.63
PnL
+$0.57
Record
52%
9022-8174 (17196)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
39.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.