Will Çaykur Rizespor vs. Erzurumspor FK end in a draw?
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 92¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 67%
$1.1K
-$12.72
80.7¢ → 91.5¢
+13% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 87.6¢ | $429.62 | $419.23 | -$10.39 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
PA Pan9X | Noavg 71.3¢ | $242.95 | $161.63 | +$55.44 | 54% 10485-8797 (19282) |
MA MadridTime | Noavg 82.6¢ | $186.49 | $159.53 | -$26.96 | 48% 1776-1912 (3688) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Noavg 66.5¢ | $82.25 | $113.19 | +$30.94 | 46% 1795-2102 (3897) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 79.5¢ | $69.41 | $70.12 | +$0.71 | 48% 63191-68207 (131398) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 82.7¢ | $84.47 | $68.78 | -$15.69 | 49% 1800-1902 (3702) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.1¢ | $48.54 | $40.69 | -$7.85 | 53% 63014-55227 (118241) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 35.1¢ | $66.73 | $30 | -$36.73 | 49% 1844-1936 (3780) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 38.2¢ | $6.88 | $4.69 | -$2.19 | 50% 1850-1866 (3716) |
Invested
$429.62
Value
$419.23
PnL
-$10.39
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Invested
$242.95
Value
$161.63
PnL
+$55.44
Record
54%
10485-8797 (19282)
Invested
$186.49
Value
$159.53
PnL
-$26.96
Record
48%
1776-1912 (3688)
Invested
$82.25
Value
$113.19
PnL
+$30.94
Record
46%
1795-2102 (3897)
Invested
$69.41
Value
$70.12
PnL
+$0.71
Record
48%
63191-68207 (131398)
Invested
$84.47
Value
$68.78
PnL
-$15.69
Record
49%
1800-1902 (3702)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$48.54
Value
$40.69
PnL
-$7.85
Record
53%
63014-55227 (118241)
Invested
$66.73
Value
$30
PnL
-$36.73
Record
49%
1844-1936 (3780)
Invested
$6.88
Value
$4.69
PnL
-$2.19
Record
50%
1850-1866 (3716)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.