Umraniyespor vs. Boluspor: 1st Half O/U 0.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 85¢ · $199 held · ended Oct 14
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 50%
$198.86
$3.01
55.8¢ → 85¢
+52% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-10 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Mature
33h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Overavg 52.6¢ | $58.67 | $94.82 | +$36.15 | 49% 14322-14999 (29321) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Overavg 63.4¢ | $49.28 | $50.94 | +$1.66 | 51% 24202-22938 (47140) |
 RN1<$100 | Overavg 55¢ | $18.37 | $28.37 | +$10 | 53% 60045-52422 (112467) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Underavg 40¢ | $33.2 | $12.49 | -$20.71 | 58% 50265-36309 (86574) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Underavg 45.1¢ | $33.99 | $11.33 | -$22.66 | 50% 36333-35815 (72148) |
YO youcanbuythisbotCTR<$100 | Underavg 39¢ | $6 | $0.9 | -$1.44 | 64% 8672-4799 (13471) |
Invested
$58.67
Value
$94.82
PnL
+$36.15
Record
49%
14322-14999 (29321)
Invested
$49.28
Value
$50.94
PnL
+$1.66
Record
51%
24202-22938 (47140)
RN1<$100Invested
$18.37
Value
$28.37
PnL
+$10
Record
53%
60045-52422 (112467)
Invested
$33.2
Value
$12.49
PnL
-$20.71
Record
58%
50265-36309 (86574)
Invested
$33.99
Value
$11.33
PnL
-$22.66
Record
50%
36333-35815 (72148)
Invested
$6
Value
$0.9
PnL
-$1.44
Record
64%
8672-4799 (13471)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.