Tusk out by December 31?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 93¢ · $4K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
🔬
Research candidate
No
6
No 100%
$4.3K
$66.05
91.6¢ → 93¢
+1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
Research candidateNo at 93%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Mature
28h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Moond | Noavg 92¢ | $2.3K | $2.3K | +$25 | 69% 1137-513 (1650) |
 archaic | Noavg 92.5¢ | $851.4 | $855.6 | +$4.2 | 85% 1906-339 (2245) |
 BloodyMummer | Noavg 87¢ | $543.94 | $575.28 | +$37.59 | 77% 557-167 (724) |
QM QMG-CORE | Noavg 95¢ | $475 | $460 | -$7.5 | 77% 1408-416 (1824) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $85.39 | $84.47 | -$0.92 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
LI lissartter<$100 | Noavg 83.1¢ | $65.98 | $73.67 | +$7.69 | 42% 5284-7234 (12518) |
MoondInvested
$2,300
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$25
Record
69%
1137-513 (1650)
archaicInvested
$851.4
Value
$855.6
PnL
+$4.2
Record
85%
1906-339 (2245)
BloodyMummerInvested
$543.94
Value
$575.28
PnL
+$37.59
Record
77%
557-167 (724)
Invested
$475
Value
$460
PnL
-$7.5
Record
77%
1408-416 (1824)
Invested
$85.39
Value
$84.47
PnL
-$0.92
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
Invested
$65.98
Value
$73.67
PnL
+$7.69
Record
42%
5284-7234 (12518)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.