Consensus PnL $58K · win rate 76% (335–105, n=440) · hand-picked wallet · holds 9 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$58.3K
Record
335W / 105L
Win Rate
76.0%
of 440 settled
Batting Avg
66.6%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#549
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
11,148
Markets
793
Volume
$677.4K
Top consensus positions
9 in listed consensus markets · 7 of 9 on the consensus side (78%)- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $3.3K · now 95¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (87% of 158)
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?No $1.8K · now 90¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (66% of 32)
- Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?No $1.3K · now 94¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (86% of 7)
- Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?No $1.2K · now 94¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Tusk out by December 31?No $575 · now 93¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (100% of 6)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes $355 · now 71¢ · in at 71¢with the consensus (82% of 110)
- Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?Yes $260 · now 13¢ · in at 24¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Yes $246 · now 82¢ · in at 56¢with the consensus (50% of 48)
Specialties
681 settled consensus markets · held side won 78% at an average entry of 70¢- Geopolitics
+9 pts
side won 79% of 528 · avg entry 70¢
ROI +9%
- Politics
+5 pts
side won 78% of 45 · avg entry 73¢
ROI +3%
- Tech
+18 pts
side won 80% of 10 · avg entry 62¢
ROI +13%
Weakest: Elections — held side won 70% of 20 at an average 73¢ entry (−3 pts against the price), ROI +8%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 10%(won 20% of 70)
- 30–50¢: 12%(won 51% of 80)
- 50–70¢: 17%(won 70% of 119)
- 70¢ and up: 60%(won 96% of 412)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.