Will AEK win on 2026-11-04?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 92¢ · $46K held · ends Nov 4

Yes9¢No91¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$45.7K

Combined PnL

-$67.43

Smart Money Entry

91¢ → 91.5¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$40.8K

Total Shares44,532

Combined PnL+$223.05

Yes4 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares55,165

Combined PnL-$290.48

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

33h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Taroooooo	Noavg 91¢	$44.0K	$40.3K	+$220	63% 148-87 (235)
DV dv-pmCTR	Yesavg 9¢	$4.9K	$4.6K	-$271.3	49% 3256-3349 (6605)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 91¢	$240.05	$242.09	+$2.03	47% 14094-15610 (29704)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 90¢	$827.45	$236.89	-$6.75	51% 23065-21883 (44948)
└ No leg	Noavg 90¢	$178.75	$181.75	+$2.98
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 10¢	$64.87	$55.14	-$9.73
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 91¢	$198.92	$200.02	+$1.09	72% 6967-2770 (9737)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 91¢	$53.81	$49.24	+$0.27	57% 17750-13286 (31036)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$48.81	$46.1	-$2.71	53% 16345-14520 (30865)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$56.74	$27.26	-$15.84	48% 5999-6422 (12421)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 90¢	$12.3	$11.96	-$0.35	51% 7139-6898 (14037)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$4.2	$3.57	-$0.63	46% 8167-9513 (17680)

Taroooooo

Invested

$44,000

Value

$40.3K

PnL

+$220

Record

63%

148-87 (235)

dv-pmCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,883.4

Value

$4.6K

PnL

-$271.3

Record

49%

3256-3349 (6605)

38791873984189

Invested

$240.05

Value

$242.09

PnL

+$2.03

Record

47%

14094-15610 (29704)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$827.45

Value

$236.89

PnL

-$6.75

Record

51%

23065-21883 (44948)

Both legs:

No$178.7590¢+$2.98

Yes$64.8710¢-$9.73

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$198.92

Value

$200.02

PnL

+$1.09

Record

72%

6967-2770 (9737)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$53.81

Value

$49.24

PnL

+$0.27

Record

57%

17750-13286 (31036)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.81

Value

$46.1

PnL

-$2.71

Record

53%

16345-14520 (30865)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$56.74

Value

$27.26

PnL

-$15.84

Record

48%

5999-6422 (12421)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$12.3

Value

$11.96

PnL

-$0.35

Record

51%

7139-6898 (14037)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.2

Value

$3.57

PnL

-$0.63

Record

46%

8167-9513 (17680)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

33h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.