Fenerbahçe SK vs. Liverpool FC: Liverpool FC O/U 0.5

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 91¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 4

Over91¢Under9¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$16.48

Smart Money Entry

90.5¢ → 91¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over91%

Under9%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,044

Combined PnL+$19.95

Under3 traders

Total Value$160.7

Total Shares1,786

Combined PnL-$3.47

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 90.5¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$20	56% 7896-6221 (14117)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Overavg 89¢	$145.28	$161.6	+$15.87	50% 36339-35820 (72159)
└ Over leg	Overavg 89¢	$79.59	$81.37	+$1.34
└ Under leg	Underavg 7.4¢	$65.69	$80.22	+$14.53
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 9.4¢	$151.52	$144.93	-$6.59	51% 1095-1048 (2143)
FO forecastication4<$100	Overavg 91¢	$28.21	$28.21	-$0	50% 1337-1356 (2693)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 7¢	$10.5	$13.5	+$3	47% 11082-12418 (23500)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Overavg 91.4¢	$11.53	$11.48	-$0.05	51% 24233-22959 (47192)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 8.5¢	$2.14	$2.27	+$0.13	58% 19471-14317 (33788)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$1,890

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$20

Record

56%

7896-6221 (14117)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Over

Invested

$145.28

Value

$161.6

PnL

+$15.87

Record

50%

36339-35820 (72159)

Both legs:

Over$79.5989¢+$1.34

Under$65.697.4¢+$14.53

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$151.52

Value

$144.93

PnL

-$6.59

Record

51%

1095-1048 (2143)

forecastication4<$100

Over

Invested

$28.21

Value

$28.21

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

1337-1356 (2693)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.5

Value

$13.5

PnL

+$3

Record

47%

11082-12418 (23500)

Flaznorp<$100

Over

Invested

$11.53

Value

$11.48

PnL

-$0.05

Record

51%

24233-22959 (47192)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.14

Value

$2.27

PnL

+$0.13

Record

58%

19471-14317 (33788)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 91%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.4%

91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.