Will Viking FK vs. Sabah FK end in a draw?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 84¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
$1.3K
-$17.48
83¢ → 83.5¢
+1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR | Yesavg 17¢ | $579.36 | $562.32 | -$17.04 | 71% 7114-2861 (9975) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Noavg 83.7¢ | $488.41 | $487.21 | -$1.2 | 50% 20734-20980 (41714) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 82¢ | $171.34 | $171.34 | +$0 | 48% 59237-63255 (122492) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $42.93 | $43.46 | +$0.53 | 51% 24219-22949 (47168) |
GC GC-P<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $42.6 | $15.67 | +$0.22 | 39% 1338-2112 (3450) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $20 | $15.49 | +$0.44 | 58% 45427-32914 (78341) |
41 0x4161...e71dCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18.7¢ | $10.41 | $10 | -$0.41 | — |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Noavg 83.7¢ | $4.19 | $4.1 | -$0.03 | 52% 8576-7821 (16397) |
Invested
$579.36
Value
$562.32
PnL
-$17.04
Record
71%
7114-2861 (9975)
Invested
$488.41
Value
$487.21
PnL
-$1.2
Record
50%
20734-20980 (41714)
Invested
$171.34
Value
$171.34
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
59237-63255 (122492)
Invested
$42.93
Value
$43.46
PnL
+$0.53
Record
51%
24219-22949 (47168)
Invested
$42.6
Value
$15.67
PnL
+$0.22
Record
39%
1338-2112 (3450)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$20
Value
$15.49
PnL
+$0.44
Record
58%
45427-32914 (78341)
Invested
$10.41
Value
$10
PnL
-$0.41
Record
—
Invested
$4.19
Value
$4.1
PnL
-$0.03
Record
52%
8576-7821 (16397)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.