Consensus PnL $23K · win rate 80% (75–19, n=94) · PM monthly #994 · holds 9 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$22.9K
Record
75W / 19L
Win Rate
80.0%
of 94 settled
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#353
Source
PM monthly #994
Record (90 d)
45/54 · 83%
Trades
0
Markets
106
Volume
$220.2K
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Top consensus positions
9 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 9 on the consensus side (22%)- Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-11-04?Yes $2.6K · now 65¢ · in at 65¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 vs. Olympiakós SFP end in a draw?Yes $10 · now 100¢ · in at 28¢with the consensus (42% of 26)
- Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-11-04?Yes $10 · now 79¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (70% of 33)
- Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-11-04?Yes $10 · now 57¢ · in at 58¢against the consensus (No)
- Will PSV win on 2026-11-04?Yes $10 · now 51¢ · in at 52¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Viking FK vs. Sabah FK end in a draw?Yes $10 · now 18¢ · in at 19¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-11-04?Yes $10 · now 26¢ · in at 28¢against the consensus (No)
- Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-11-04?Yes $10 · now 25¢ · in at 24¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
54 settled consensus markets · held side won 83% at an average entry of 72¢- Soccer
+11 pts
side won 83% of 53 · avg entry 72¢
ROI +11%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 11%(won 50% of 6)
- 30–50¢: 7%(won 25% of 4)
- 50–70¢: 11%(won 83% of 6)
- 70¢ and up: 70%(won 95% of 38)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.