Will FC Viktoria Plzeň win on 2026-11-05?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 57¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
$1.2K
$30.1
56.2¢ → 57.5¢
+2% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+5 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 56.2¢ | $592.42 | $616.46 | +$24.04 | 51% 25600-24316 (49916) |
CA Cannae | Noavg 56¢ | $456.73 | $258.05 | +$2.28 | 53% 16647-14800 (31447) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 43¢ | $435.58 | $189.48 | +$2.18 | 50% 28303-28194 (56497) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $94.87 | $95.72 | +$0.85 | 51% 37415-36655 (74070) |
GC GC-P<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $18.22 | $19.03 | +$0.81 | 64% 9875-5563 (15438) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $25.43 | $14.37 | +$0.13 | 50% 25741-25428 (51169) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 59.2¢ | $7.99 | $7.9 | -$0.1 | 52% 1352-1271 (2623) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 59.2¢ | $7.99 | $7.9 | -$0.1 | 50% 1297-1284 (2581) |
Invested
$592.42
Value
$616.46
PnL
+$24.04
Record
51%
25600-24316 (49916)
Invested
$456.73
Value
$258.05
PnL
+$2.28
Record
53%
16647-14800 (31447)
Invested
$435.58
Value
$189.48
PnL
+$2.18
Record
50%
28303-28194 (56497)
Invested
$94.87
Value
$95.72
PnL
+$0.85
Record
51%
37415-36655 (74070)
Invested
$18.22
Value
$19.03
PnL
+$0.81
Record
64%
9875-5563 (15438)
Invested
$25.43
Value
$14.37
PnL
+$0.13
Record
50%
25741-25428 (51169)
Invested
$7.99
Value
$7.9
PnL
-$0.1
Record
52%
1352-1271 (2623)
Invested
$7.99
Value
$7.9
PnL
-$0.1
Record
50%
1297-1284 (2581)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.