AC Milan vs. Ferencvárosi TC: Both Teams to Score
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 53¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 71%
1 arb excluded
$1.3K
$3.43
52.5¢ → 52.5¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 60%
Freshness
Fresh
11h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $561.7 | $580.44 | -$1.17 | 51% 25264-24010 (49274) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 48¢ | $390.1 | $386.08 | -$4.02 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 52¢ | $192.5 | $194.35 | +$2.84 | |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 47.5¢ | $189.98 | $189.98 | -$0 | 58% 46107-33290 (79397) |
NM NM-P | Yesavg 52¢ | $138.87 | $141.54 | +$2.67 | 63% 9246-5377 (14623) |
GC GC-P | Yesavg 52¢ | $138.87 | $141.54 | +$2.67 | 63% 9306-5458 (14764) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Yesavg 54¢ | $84.85 | $83.26 | -$1.59 | 50% 21032-21299 (42331) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $84.13 | $82.38 | -$1.75 | 50% 25689-25377 (51066) |
DV dv-pm<$100 | Yesavg 53.2¢ | $59.9 | $59.62 | +$0.56 | 49% 3313-3483 (6796) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Yesavg 52¢ | $44.86 | $45.72 | +$0.86 | 53% 16587-14762 (31349) |
Invested
$561.7
Value
$580.44
PnL
-$1.17
Record
51%
25264-24010 (49274)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$189.98
Value
$189.98
PnL
-$0
Record
58%
46107-33290 (79397)
Invested
$138.87
Value
$141.54
PnL
+$2.67
Record
63%
9246-5377 (14623)
Invested
$138.87
Value
$141.54
PnL
+$2.67
Record
63%
9306-5458 (14764)
Invested
$84.85
Value
$83.26
PnL
-$1.59
Record
50%
21032-21299 (42331)
Invested
$84.13
Value
$82.38
PnL
-$1.75
Record
50%
25689-25377 (51066)
Invested
$59.9
Value
$59.62
PnL
+$0.56
Record
49%
3313-3483 (6796)
Invested
$44.86
Value
$45.72
PnL
+$0.86
Record
53%
16587-14762 (31349)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.