AC Milan vs. Ferencvárosi TC: O/U 3.5

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (70%) · Under at 56¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 5

Over44¢Under56¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 70%

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

-$31.01

Smart Money Entry

58.3¢ → 56.5¢

-3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over44%

Under56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares4,814

Combined PnL-$30.58

Over3 traders

Total Value$102.06

Total Shares243

Combined PnL-$0.42

Under — 70%Over — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 58.6¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$13.15	50% 28405-28302 (56707)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 58¢	$609.52	$609.52	-$0	51% 25691-24411 (50102)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 58.5¢	$543.89	$496.41	-$17.95	58% 46650-33619 (80269)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 58.9¢	$150.73	$148.48	-$2.25	48% 61013-65836 (126849)
SE sentrio	Underavg 58¢	$142.18	$142.18	-$0	50% 25799-25489 (51288)
GC GC-P	Underavg 57¢	$131.36	$133.66	+$2.3	64% 9954-5592 (15546)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 42.2¢	$89.91	$89.46	-$0.45	50% 1305-1289 (2594)
NM NM-P<$100	Underavg 56¢	$51.97	$52.43	+$0.46	64% 9911-5524 (15435)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 42.2¢	$7.6	$7.56	-$0.04	51% 1367-1324 (2691)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 42.2¢	$5.07	$5.04	+$0.06	53% 1404-1252 (2656)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$1,210.45

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$13.15

Record

50%

28405-28302 (56707)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$609.52

Value

$609.52

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

25691-24411 (50102)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$543.89

Value

$496.41

PnL

-$17.95

Record

58%

46650-33619 (80269)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$150.73

Value

$148.48

PnL

-$2.25

Record

48%

61013-65836 (126849)

sentrio

Under

Invested

$142.18

Value

$142.18

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

25799-25489 (51288)

GC-P

Under

Invested

$131.36

Value

$133.66

PnL

+$2.3

Record

64%

9954-5592 (15546)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$89.91

Value

$89.46

PnL

-$0.45

Record

50%

1305-1289 (2594)

NM-P<$100

Under

Invested

$51.97

Value

$52.43

PnL

+$0.46

Record

64%

9911-5524 (15435)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.6

Value

$7.56

PnL

-$0.04

Record

51%

1367-1324 (2691)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.07

Value

$5.04

PnL

+$0.06

Record

53%

1404-1252 (2656)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.