Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2026-11-05?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 70¢ · $693 held · ends Nov 5

Yes31¢No69¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$693.42

Combined PnL

$13.17

Smart Money Entry

70.2¢ → 69.5¢

-1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes31%

No70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$444.53

Total Shares632

Combined PnL+$1.2

Yes4 traders

Total Value$248.89

Total Shares844

Combined PnL+$11.97

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NM NM-P	Noavg 69.7¢	$296.23	$299.6	+$3.37	46% 1299-1520 (2819)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 29¢	$227.64	$231.56	+$11.78	51% 23811-22567 (46378)
LI Limousin	Noavg 71¢	$108.56	$106.96	-$1.6	54% 1142-961 (2103)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 71¢	$29.49	$29.05	-$0.44	51% 1041-990 (2031)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$15	$14.75	-$0.25	48% 57267-60865 (118132)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 71¢	$7.96	$7.84	-$0.12	53% 1098-984 (2082)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$1.74	$1.77	+$0.09	51% 7458-7190 (14648)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 71¢	$1.09	$1.07	-$0.02	52% 1107-1025 (2132)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$12.37	$0.81	+$0.35	58% 44906-32675 (77581)

NM-P

Invested

$296.23

Value

$299.6

PnL

+$3.37

Record

46%

1299-1520 (2819)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$227.64

Value

$231.56

PnL

+$11.78

Record

51%

23811-22567 (46378)

Limousin

Invested

$108.56

Value

$106.96

PnL

-$1.6

Record

54%

1142-961 (2103)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$29.49

Value

$29.05

PnL

-$0.44

Record

51%

1041-990 (2031)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15

Value

$14.75

PnL

-$0.25

Record

48%

57267-60865 (118132)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$7.96

Value

$7.84

PnL

-$0.12

Record

53%

1098-984 (2082)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.74

Value

$1.77

PnL

+$0.09

Record

51%

7458-7190 (14648)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$1.09

Value

$1.07

PnL

-$0.02

Record

52%

1107-1025 (2132)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.37

Value

$0.81

PnL

+$0.35

Record

58%

44906-32675 (77581)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 70%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.