Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Olympique Lyonnais: Both Teams to Score

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (44%) · Yes at 62¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 5

Yes62¢No38¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 44%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$4.73

Smart Money Entry

60.8¢ → 61.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes62%

No39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$952.57

Total Shares1,549

Combined PnL+$15.1

No5 traders

Total Value$278.01

Total Shares724

Combined PnL-$10.37

Yes — 44%No — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Yesavg 60.9¢	$568.42	$574.43	+$6.01	56% 7905-6321 (14226)
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 60.6¢	$512.4	$331.4	+$8.71	58% 46658-33622 (80280)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Noavg 40.2¢	$229.48	$219.84	-$9.65	50% 1309-1291 (2600)
38 38791873984189<$100	Yesavg 61¢	$30.5	$30.75	+$0.25	48% 61030-65863 (126893)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Noavg 37.5¢	$30.01	$30.4	+$0.4	51% 25699-24415 (50114)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Noavg 40.2¢	$20.5	$19.38	-$1.12	51% 1368-1329 (2697)
PA Pan9X<$100	Yesavg 61¢	$15.86	$15.99	+$0.13	49% 4474-4672 (9146)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$4.78	$4.78	+$0	50% 25801-25492 (51293)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$3.61	$3.61	+$0	53% 16795-14918 (31713)

0xheavy888

Yes

Invested

$568.42

Value

$574.43

PnL

+$6.01

Record

56%

7905-6321 (14226)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$512.4

Value

$331.4

PnL

+$8.71

Record

58%

46658-33622 (80280)

MadridTimeCTR

Invested

$229.48

Value

$219.84

PnL

-$9.65

Record

50%

1309-1291 (2600)

38791873984189<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.5

Value

$30.75

PnL

+$0.25

Record

48%

61030-65863 (126893)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Invested

$30.01

Value

$30.4

PnL

+$0.4

Record

51%

25699-24415 (50114)

VenusianCTR<$100

Invested

$20.5

Value

$19.38

PnL

-$1.12

Record

51%

1368-1329 (2697)

Pan9X<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.86

Value

$15.99

PnL

+$0.13

Record

49%

4474-4672 (9146)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$4.78

Value

$4.78

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

25801-25492 (51293)

CannaeCTR<$100

Invested

$3.61

Value

$3.61

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

16795-14918 (31713)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 62%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.