Spread: AFC Bournemouth (-2.5)

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold AC Sparta Praha (56%) · AC Sparta Praha at 82¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 5

AFC Bournemouth18¢AC Sparta Praha82¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

AC Sparta Praha

Consensus Traders

AC Sparta Praha 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$46.49

Smart Money Entry

76.2¢ → 82¢

+8% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralAC Sparta Praha at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

AC Sparta Praha

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

AFC Bournemouth18%

AC Sparta Praha82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

AC Sparta Praha5 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares2,242

Combined PnL+$100.57

AFC Bournemouth4 traders

Total Value$169.25

Total Shares852

Combined PnL-$54.08

AC Sparta Praha — 56%AFC Bournemouth — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	AC Sparta Prahaavg 75.6¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$90.69	51% 25716-24429 (50145)
nigiri99	AC Sparta Prahaavg 79.6¢	$257.92	$262.44	+$4.52	46% 8591-10242 (18833)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	AC Sparta Prahaavg 76.5¢	$278.94	$231.89	-$3.98	48% 61036-65868 (126904)
└ AC Sparta Praha leg	AC Sparta Prahaavg 76.5¢	$160.58	$169.97	+$10.11
└ AFC Bournemouth leg	AFC Bournemouthavg 23.2¢	$75.51	$61.92	-$14.09
LI LimousinCTR	AFC Bournemouthavg 27¢	$159.51	$106.49	-$53.02	53% 1413-1258 (2671)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	AC Sparta Prahaavg 75¢	$81.57	$80.48	+$0	50% 28410-28315 (56725)
SE sentrio<$100	AC Sparta Prahaavg 75¢	$57	$61.56	+$4.56	50% 25811-25501 (51312)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	AFC Bournemouthavg 25.9¢	$28.21	$28.28	+$0.07	50% 1313-1295 (2608)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	AFC Bournemouthavg 26.5¢	$21.21	$20.8	-$0.41	52% 1365-1285 (2650)
PA Pan9X<$100	AC Sparta Prahaavg 74.7¢	$35.09	$15.05	+$0.8	55% 9735-8124 (17859)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	AFC Bournemouthavg 20¢	$14.4	$13.68	-$0.72	47% 11685-13388 (25073)

Flaznorp

AC Sparta Praha

Invested

$1,323.06

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$90.69

Record

51%

25716-24429 (50145)

nigiri99

AC Sparta Praha

Invested

$257.92

Value

$262.44

PnL

+$4.52

Record

46%

8591-10242 (18833)

38791873984189ARB<$100

AC Sparta Praha

Invested

$278.94

Value

$231.89

PnL

-$3.98

Record

48%

61036-65868 (126904)

Both legs:

AC Sparta Praha$160.5876.5¢+$10.11

AFC Bournemouth$75.5123.2¢-$14.09

LimousinCTR

AFC Bournemouth

Invested

$159.51

Value

$106.49

PnL

-$53.02

Record

53%

1413-1258 (2671)

GoalLineGhost<$100

AC Sparta Praha

Invested

$81.57

Value

$80.48

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

28410-28315 (56725)

sentrio<$100

AC Sparta Praha

Invested

$57

Value

$61.56

PnL

+$4.56

Record

50%

25811-25501 (51312)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

AFC Bournemouth

Invested

$28.21

Value

$28.28

PnL

+$0.07

Record

50%

1313-1295 (2608)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

AFC Bournemouth

Invested

$21.21

Value

$20.8

PnL

-$0.41

Record

52%

1365-1285 (2650)

Pan9X<$100

AC Sparta Praha

Invested

$35.09

Value

$15.05

PnL

+$0.8

Record

55%

9735-8124 (17859)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

AFC Bournemouth

Invested

$14.4

Value

$13.68

PnL

-$0.72

Record

47%

11685-13388 (25073)

Research grade

NeutralAC Sparta Praha at 82%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

AC Sparta Praha

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that AC Sparta Praha wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.7%

82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$19.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

119.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.