Will FK Kharkiv win on 2026-11-01?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 68¢ · $498 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$497.83
$33.9
60¢ → 67.5¢
+12% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 68%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
112h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 60¢ | $262.77 | $295.53 | +$32.76 | 58% 46962-33856 (80818) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 60¢ | $103.29 | $116.2 | +$12.91 | 50% 28591-28432 (57023) |
 rayvanmechelenCTR<$100 | Yesavg 41.2¢ | $92.13 | $77.36 | -$12.6 | 53% 2606-2300 (4906) |
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100 | Yesavg 21¢ | $3.15 | $4.88 | +$1.73 | 55% 1393-1150 (2543) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 40¢ | $4.76 | $3.87 | -$0.89 | 49% 14837-15619 (30456) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$262.77
Value
$295.53
PnL
+$32.76
Record
58%
46962-33856 (80818)
Invested
$103.29
Value
$116.2
PnL
+$12.91
Record
50%
28591-28432 (57023)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100Invested
$92.13
Value
$77.36
PnL
-$12.6
Record
53%
2606-2300 (4906)
Invested
$3.15
Value
$4.88
PnL
+$1.73
Record
55%
1393-1150 (2543)
Invested
$4.76
Value
$3.87
PnL
-$0.89
Record
49%
14837-15619 (30456)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.