Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (98%). 2 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
FK Kharkiv vs. FK Karpaty Lviv: O/U 2.5
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (29%) · Under at 1.6¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 7
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 29%
$2.8K
-$91.49
50.4¢ → 1.6¢
-97% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 2%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Over 98%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
34h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
29% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 49.6¢ | $1.1K | $2.2K | +$1.1K | 50% 32547-32694 (65241) |
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 50¢ | $282.21 | $513.6 | +$231.81 | 51% 47136-44473 (91609) |
PL plustiCTR | Underavg 50.4¢ | $1.5K | $46.16 | $-1.5K | 50% 17-17 (34) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $20.73 | $41.65 | +$20.92 | 48% 2081-2289 (4370) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Overavg 52¢ | $11.69 | $22.13 | +$10.44 | 59% 52363-37089 (89452) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $10.71 | $21.09 | +$10.38 | 48% 2117-2339 (4456) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $2.5 | $0.08 | -$2.42 | 50% 27934-27381 (55315) |
Invested
$1,107.92
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$1.1K
Record
50%
32547-32694 (65241)
Invested
$282.21
Value
$513.6
PnL
+$231.81
Record
51%
47136-44473 (91609)
Invested
$1,500
Value
$46.16
PnL
$-1.5K
Record
50%
17-17 (34)
Invested
$20.73
Value
$41.65
PnL
+$20.92
Record
48%
2081-2289 (4370)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$11.69
Value
$22.13
PnL
+$10.44
Record
59%
52363-37089 (89452)
Invested
$10.71
Value
$21.09
PnL
+$10.38
Record
48%
2117-2339 (4456)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$0.08
PnL
-$2.42
Record
50%
27934-27381 (55315)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
1.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.